Saturday, June 27, 2009

So you think it's not getting warmer? ...

Krugman writes:
What this tells me is that annual temperature is indeed noisy: there have been many large fluctuations, indeed much larger than the up-and-down in the last decade or so. But the direction of change is unmistakable if you take the longer view. The fitted line in the figure is a 3rd-degree polynomial, but any sort of smoothing would tell you that there is a massive upward trend.

Of course, trend-spotting is no substitute for causal modeling; and the models are getting truly scary in their implications.
The only reason I can figure for political recalcitrance on this matter is that politicians hate their children. Could there be another reason?

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